While Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One is almost certain to be a huge hit, the sequel has little chance of matching the financial success of Top Gun: Maverick. Tom Cruise is one of the most dependable blockbuster stars in recent cinematic history, except for one massive flop in 2017’s The Mummy (a blunder that ultimately destroyed the entire Dark Cinematic Universe). The actor did not succeed in making a billion-dollar film until 2022, despite regularly churning out hit after hit throughout the years.

Despite having to wait 36 years for a follow-up to Top Gun, Top Gun: Maverick’s historic box office performance shows that Cruise’s antihero benefited from his extended absence on the big screen. The more divided 1986 original, which was also a moderate box office hit for audiences, cannot be said to be as highly regarded as Top Gun: Maverick. The box office success of the follow-up, Top Gun: Maverick, managed to surpass even the most optimistic financial projections because the anticipation for the film’s debut was not excessively strong. Top Gun: Maverick has amassed approximately $1.5 billion in global revenue as 2022 comes to a close.

Why Tom Cruise Can’t Make Mission Impossible 7 As Successful As Top Gun 2

Viewers may be hoping that Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One would surpass Top Gun: Maverick as the next $1 billion Tom Cruise film, but this is highly unlikely for several reasons. For starters, Top Gun: Maverick is the first Top Gun film to be produced in 36 years, as opposed to the Mission Impossible series, which has consistently produced new installments every few years for decades, making it less of an occasion.

Another factor is that Top Gun: Maverick benefited from a level of excitement that was unforeseen and unattainable. It is unknown how commercially successful Top Gun: Maverick would have been had it opened in mid-2020 as planned, without the COVID-19 pandemic’s effects and the ensuing theatre closures. However, Top Gun: Maverick’s enthusiasm was heightened by two-year release date delays, fresh trailers, set-related rumors, and unbridled curiosity. Since the Top Gun franchise had already kept audiences waiting for decades, it created the hype without causing viewers to get impatient.

Why the success of Top Gun 2 is so hard to duplicate

A new production would need to gain from the enthusiastic post-lockdown return to theatres to surpass Top Gun: Maverick’s box office. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One won’t be able to match Top Gun: Maverick’s success in wooing moviegoers who may have been on the fence about going to the theatres again until mid-2022. With younger audiences being more familiar with Mission Impossible, it has fewer chances of becoming a hit through word-of-mouth like Top Gun: Maverick. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One does have a strong chance of earning $1 billion, though.

The Mission Impossible franchise has seen an increase in box office earnings with each new film; Mission Impossible: Fallout brought in $792 million. Based on the increasing popularity of previous sequels, Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One may yet gross over $1 billion. Mission Impossible 9 may be better for Tom Cruise’s short-term financial situation than Top Gun 3, but Top Gun 3 would be better for the actor’s career overall. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One won’t be able to match Top Gun: Maverick’s impact, though.

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